This file describes the output files generated by the analysis. THIS ANALYSIS DOES NOT PREDICT THE FUTURE! It only gives you a local projection based on the results of a group of climate models, given a particular assumption about future emissions. A note on formats: Files with a .png extension are image files. Files with a .ps extension are printable PostScript files. Files with a .txt extension are tab-delimited human-readable columnar data files that can be opened with a spreadsheet program. WARNING.TXT If present, this file indicates that the region had to be expanded to include more gridpoints, and contains the new boundaries created by the automatic expansion. gridpoints.txt lists the latitude/longitude coordinates of all the datapoints used in the analysis. models.txt lists the difference between current and future values for each GCM for all combinations of scenario, observable, year, and season. quantiles.txt lists quantiles of the climate change PDF at the 10%, 20%, ... 90% level for each combination of scenario, observable, year, and season. region.png a map of the region, showing the user-defined region (dashed line) and corresponding grid cells actually used in the analysis (red). Centers of the grid cells are also shown. about/ this folder contains HTML files (copied from the RCPM website) with information about the method, its limitations, and the proper use of this data. pdf/ this folder contains plots of the probability distribution functions for each year, scenario, observable, and season. GCM values are overplotted for comparison. ps/ this folder contains PostScript versions of the PDF plots and the region map suitable for printing. params.r this is the configuration file used by the analysis program. It defines the spatial region, the future period compared to 1980-1999, and the emissions scenario. raw.dat contains the raw data generated by the analysis, in R savefile format. Each element of the list 'result' contains the following named variables: X0 observed data from the current period X modeled GCM data for the current period Y modeled GCM data for the future period lambda0 natural variability; stddev(X0) = 1/sqrt(lambda0) mu simulated data from posterior dist. for current nu simulated data from posterior dist. for future Y0 nu perturbed by gaussian w/ sigma = 1/sqrt(lambda0) obs observable ("temp" or "precip") scen emissions scenario ("a1b", "b1", or "a2") season month or combination of months year middle year of the 2-decade future span